I'm not denying this scenario is possible. But it would not match well with my experience, for what that is worth. It's not like China has the same tradition of habeas corpus as the USA (did). So detaining people is easier -- no need for covert jazzy-jazz. Also, however, unless they do really face an emergency, the authorities typica…
I'm not denying this scenario is possible. But it would not match well with my experience, for what that is worth. It's not like China has the same tradition of habeas corpus as the USA (did). So detaining people is easier -- no need for covert jazzy-jazz. Also, however, unless they do really face an emergency, the authorities typically were not so heavy-handed. All societies have people who are discontented -- but if it stays monitored and below a certain threshold, no real threat to those in power. "Dissent" can be a safety-valve, serving a purpose, like the antics of AOC at the Met Gala.
But we do have the story of Margaret Thatcher’s Beijing visit in 1982. Thatcher presumptively demanded that China renew the lease on the New Territories -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Territories. Deng, famed for his moderation and pragmatism, was furious. He reportedly told her that he could stretch out his hand and take over all of Hong Kong, the peninsula and island, tomorrow: "We have more soldiers than you have bullets."
Whether Deng would have done so or not is another story. But historically, China was willing to solve major military threats and the like by throwing bodies at it. There is indeed some truth to the stereotype: the collectivist mindset of China versus the "individual rights" mindset professed by many Western nations. Please note the qualification "some truth" -- I have found the college age generation not answering well at all to our stereotypes.
But the bottom line remains: even as recent as Deng (1982), the Chinese government has been willing to sacrifice people as collective groups, to throw bodies at a problem, if they are convinced they face a true threat. (See also the Korean war, 1950-1953).
But that "true threat" would not be run-of-the-mill discontent or even dissent. All societies have that, including mainland China -- and China already has various ways of dealing with it, and keeping it below a certain threshold.
The CCP leaders would need to believe they are facing a real crisis. Big time serious. That is what concerns me. This looks well beyond a simple crackdown level. But again, I am working on HIGHLY limited information, and I am offering you speculation. So "Nullius in verba" -- take no one's word for it, including mine.
I'm not denying this scenario is possible. But it would not match well with my experience, for what that is worth. It's not like China has the same tradition of habeas corpus as the USA (did). So detaining people is easier -- no need for covert jazzy-jazz. Also, however, unless they do really face an emergency, the authorities typically were not so heavy-handed. All societies have people who are discontented -- but if it stays monitored and below a certain threshold, no real threat to those in power. "Dissent" can be a safety-valve, serving a purpose, like the antics of AOC at the Met Gala.
But we do have the story of Margaret Thatcher’s Beijing visit in 1982. Thatcher presumptively demanded that China renew the lease on the New Territories -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Territories. Deng, famed for his moderation and pragmatism, was furious. He reportedly told her that he could stretch out his hand and take over all of Hong Kong, the peninsula and island, tomorrow: "We have more soldiers than you have bullets."
Whether Deng would have done so or not is another story. But historically, China was willing to solve major military threats and the like by throwing bodies at it. There is indeed some truth to the stereotype: the collectivist mindset of China versus the "individual rights" mindset professed by many Western nations. Please note the qualification "some truth" -- I have found the college age generation not answering well at all to our stereotypes.
But the bottom line remains: even as recent as Deng (1982), the Chinese government has been willing to sacrifice people as collective groups, to throw bodies at a problem, if they are convinced they face a true threat. (See also the Korean war, 1950-1953).
But that "true threat" would not be run-of-the-mill discontent or even dissent. All societies have that, including mainland China -- and China already has various ways of dealing with it, and keeping it below a certain threshold.
The CCP leaders would need to believe they are facing a real crisis. Big time serious. That is what concerns me. This looks well beyond a simple crackdown level. But again, I am working on HIGHLY limited information, and I am offering you speculation. So "Nullius in verba" -- take no one's word for it, including mine.