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Georgio's avatar

Dirty bombs, just like actual nukes, would have a certain isotope ratio that is characteristic for the source. In case of Ukraine, those sources are limited to their existing (and controlled) nuclear infrastructure.

It would be identifiable, especially if the wind carries it over 3rd parties.

A Russian source would be more difficult to pin down (their nuclear industry is vast and they also do reprocessing, for example they reprocess our spent fuel chiefly because of the Plutonium in it, but there's all sorts of nasty stuff in spent fuel). When the Russians do radiological attacks, they also send a message that it was them. For example: Polonium is difficult to acquire and purify. When they chose that as a weapon for an assassination, it was meant to be understood (any dummy can make ricin that does the job just as well. Pure Polonium, that doesn't have other isotopes that might trigger a radiation sensor, in quantities, is Big Boy stuff).

Jota Pe's avatar

Were I to make bets based on current noise, my money would be closer to the 2nd of november.

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